The Vietnamese government, businesses and people are determined to achieve the "dual goal" of both fighting the epidemic and developing the economy
In the Global Economic Outlook report from Oxford Economics, ICAEW stated that economic activities are starting to pick up again and growth is expected to recover to 6,4% next year. 2021. However, the pace of recovery in the second half of 2020 will vary across countries in the region, depending on the easing of lockdown restrictions and improvement in export demand.
The Covid-19 outbreak reduced global GDP by about 9% in the first half of 2020, at least three times the scale of the crisis. finance global 2007 – 2009. Despite seeing a recovery in the third quarter of 3%, this report shows that world GDP will decline overall by 6,4% in 4,4.
However, the world economy is experiencing a recovery in the second half of 2020, which is expected to boost growth to 5,8% in 2021 and lead the global economy to recover back to normal levels. pre-crisis peak in the middle of the following year, similar to the recovery time frame following the 2008 financial crisis.
“Vietnam is predicted to be the only Southeast Asian economy to record positive growth this year with GDP increasing by 2,3% in 2020 and 8% in 2021.”
For the Southeast Asia region, a strong recovery in economic activities in the coming quarters remains uncertain, especially in the fourth quarter of 2020, after predictions of a strong recovery in trade. Global trade and domestic activities after social distancing did not go as expected. In addition, differences in the level of success in containing the Covid-19 outbreak and strategies to lift the lockdown will widen the gap in economic growth between countries in the region. area. Countries that are successful in containing outbreaks, such as Thailand and Vietnam, will see a stronger recovery than Indonesia and the Philippines, which are facing new Covid-19 outbreaks. after restrictions were soon eased.
Although growth in Singapore is forecast to decline 5,7% this year due to a sharp decline in global trade. However, signs of recovery in exports and imports will push the country's economy to grow again to 6,1% in 2021. Heavily export-oriented economies such as Singapore and Vietnam will continues to benefit from stability in trade indicators, demonstrated by improvements in export performance over the past few months.
The report also predicts that the recovery prospects are brightest for Vietnam, a country that has prevented the epidemic very effectively so far. Vietnam is predicted to be the only Southeast Asian economy to record positive growth this year with GDP increasing 2,3% in 2020 and 8% in 2021.
Meanwhile, although Malaysia's exports are expected to benefit from improving Chinese import demand and the electronics cycle, the country's economic recovery may still slow due to Global demand remains slow, unemployment is high and invest weak. Malaysia's economy is forecast to shrink 6% this year and grow 6,6% in 2021..
The pace of economic recovery in Indonesia and the Philippines is still quite uncertain, as infections increased again after lockdown restrictions were eased, causing reopening plans in these two countries to be temporarily suspended. stop or reverse. Both economies remain highly vulnerable due to weaker public health infrastructure, lower levels of fiscal support, and growth that is highly dependent on people. consumption than other economies in the region.
The pace of recovery in Indonesia is expected to slow and household incomes will be squeezed. GDP is expected to contract by 2,7% in 2020 and grow by 6,2% in 2021. The Philippines is expected to have the largest decline in Southeast Asia, with GDP falling by up to 8,2% in 2020, due to dependent on international travel and a slowdown in easing lockdown restrictions.
Mr. Mark Billington, ICAEW Regional Director for Southeast Asia and China, said: “The recovery process of economies in Southeast Asia will be a long road, as US-China tensions are still ongoing. takes place, global trade slows for a long time and the prolonged Covid-19 pandemic weighs on the region's growth prospects."
“Although each country in the region is affected by the crisis, the level of crisis occurring in each economy is different, depending on the economic structure of each country. Still, countries that are able to strike a balance between continuing economic activity and controlling outbreaks see their economies recover faster than the rest. .”, Mr. Mark Billington said.
Source baodautu.vn